Increasing number and incidence of low-trauma ankle fractures in elderly people: Finnish statistics during 1970-2000 and projections for the future.

To increase knowledge about recent trends in the number and incidence of various low-trauma injuries among elderly people, we selected, from the National Hospital Discharge Register, all patients > or =60 years of age who were admitted to hospitals in Finland (5 million population) for primary treatment of a first low-trauma ankle fracture during 1970-2000. In each year of the study, the age-adjusted and age-specific incidence of fracture was expressed as the number of patients per 100,000 persons. The predicted numbers and incidence rates of fractures until the year 2030 were calculated using a regression model. For the study period, the number and incidence of low-trauma ankle fractures in Finnish persons > or =60 years of age rose substantially: the total number of fractures increased from 369 in 1970 to 1545 in 2000, a 319% increase, and the crude incidence increased from 57 to 150, a 163% increase. The age-adjusted incidence of these fractures also rose in both women (from 66 in 1970 to 174 in 2000, a 164% increase) and men (from 38 in 1970 to 114 in 2000, a 200% increase). The regression model indicates that, if this trend continues, there will be about three times more low-trauma ankle fractures in Finland in the year 2030 than there was in 2000. In conclusion, the number of low-trauma ankle fractures in elderly Finns is rising rapidly at a rate that cannot be explained simply by demographic changes and, therefore, potentially effective preventive measures, such as prevention of slippings, trippings, and falls in elderly people, and use of ankle supports, should be urgently studied.