The New York Islands AVM Study: design, study progress, and initial results.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Prospective population-based data on the incidence of brain arteriovenous malformation (AVM) hemorrhage are scarce. We studied lifetime detection rates of brain AVM and incident AVM hemorrhage in a defined population.

METHODS: The New York islands (ie, Manhattan Island, Staten Island, and Long Island) comprise a 9,429,541 population according to the 2000 census. Since March 15, 2000, all major New York islands hospitals have prospectively reported data on consecutive patients living in the study area with a diagnosis of brain AVM and whether the patient had suffered AVM hemorrhage. Patients living outside the ZIP code-defined study area were excluded from the study population.

RESULTS: As of June 14, 2002, 284 prospective AVM patients (mean+/-SD age, 35+/-18 years; 49% women) were encountered during 21,216,467 person-years of observation, leading to an average annual AVM detection rate of 1.34 per 100,000 person-years (95% CI, 1.18 to 1.49). The incidence of first-ever AVM hemorrhage (n=108; mean age, 31+/-19 years; 45% women) was 0.51 per 100,000 person-years (95% CI, 0.41 to 0.61). The estimated prevalence of AVM hemorrhage among detected cases (n=144; mean age, 33+/-19 years; 50% women) was 0.68 per 100,000 (95% CI, 0.57 to 0.79).

CONCLUSIONS: Our prospective data, spanning 27 months, suggest stable rates for AVM detection and incident AVM hemorrhage. Approximately half of AVM patients may suffer intracranial hemorrhage.