Prognosis of carcinoid heart disease: analysis of 200 cases over two decades.

BACKGROUND: The long-term prognosis of patients who develop carcinoid heart disease and the effect of cardiac surgery on outcome are not well established.

METHODS AND RESULTS: In this retrospective study, we identified 200 patients with carcinoid syndrome referred for echocardiography in whom the diagnosis of carcinoid heart disease was confirmed. Patients were divided into 3 groups of similar size according to the date from first diagnosis of carcinoid heart disease. Group A comprised patients diagnosed from 1981 through June 1989; group B, diagnosed July 1989 through May 1995; and group C, June 1995 through 2000. The end point was all-cause mortality. Median survival was significantly lower in group A (1.5 years, 95% CI 1.1 to 1.9 years) compared with groups B (3.2, 95% CI 1.3 to 5.1 years) and C (4.4, 95% CI 2.4 to 7.1 years; P=0.009). In a multivariate model adjusted for treatment and clinical characteristics, the risk of death in groups B (hazard ratio 0.67, 95% CI 0.46 to 0.99, P=0.04) and C (hazard ratio 0.61, 95% CI 0.39 to 0.92, P=0.006) was significantly reduced relative to group A. Cardiac surgery was performed in 87 patients. When cardiac surgery was included as a time-dependent covariate in a multivariate analysis, it was associated with a risk reduction of 0.48 (95% CI 0.31 to 0.73, P<0.001), whereas the time period of diagnosis was no longer significant.

CONCLUSIONS: The prognosis of patients with recognized carcinoid heart disease has improved over the past 2 decades at our institution. This change in survival may be related to valve replacement surgery.