Projections of primary and revision hip and knee arthroplasty in the United States from 2005 to 2030.

BACKGROUND: Over the past decade, there has been an increase in the number of revision total hip and knee arthroplasties performed in the United States. The purpose of this study was to formulate projections for the number of primary and revision total hip and knee arthroplasties that will be performed in the United States through 2030.

METHODS: The Nationwide Inpatient Sample (1990 to 2003) was used in conjunction with United States Census Bureau data to quantify primary and revision arthroplasty rates as a function of age, gender, race and/or ethnicity, and census region. Projections were performed with use of Poisson regression on historical procedure rates in combination with population projections from 2005 to 2030.

RESULTS: By 2030, the demand for primary total hip arthroplasties is estimated to grow by 174% to 572,000. The demand for primary total knee arthroplasties is projected to grow by 673% to 3.48 million procedures. The demand for hip revision procedures is projected to double by the year 2026, while the demand for knee revisions is expected to double by 2015. Although hip revisions are currently more frequently performed than knee revisions, the demand for knee revisions is expected to surpass the demand for hip revisions after 2007. Overall, total hip and total knee revisions are projected to grow by 137% and 601%, respectively, between 2005 and 2030.

CONCLUSIONS: These large projected increases in demand for total hip and knee arthroplasties provide a quantitative basis for future policy decisions related to the numbers of orthopaedic surgeons needed to perform these procedures and the deployment of appropriate resources to serve this need.