Predicting mortality in patients with bleeding peptic ulcers after therapeutic endoscopy.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Despite advances in management of patients with bleeding peptic ulcers, mortality is still 10%. This study aimed to identify predictive factors and to develop a prediction model for mortality among patients with bleeding peptic ulcers.

METHODS: Consecutive patients with endoscopic stigmata of active bleeding, visible vessels, or adherent clots were recruited, and risk factors for mortality were identified in this deprivation cohort by using multiple stepwise logistic regression. A prediction model was then built on the basis of these factors and validated in the evaluation cohort.

RESULTS: From 1993 to 2003, 3220 patients with bleeding peptic ulcers were treated. Two hundred eighty-four of the patients developed rebleeding (8.8%); emergency surgery was performed on 47 of these patients, whereas others were managed with endoscopic retreatment. Two hundred twenty-nine of these sustained in-hospital death (7.1%). In patients older than 70 years, presence of comorbidity, more than 1 listed comorbidity, hematemesis on presentation, systolic blood pressure below 100 mm Hg, in-hospital bleeding, rebleeding, and need for surgery were significant predictors for mortality. Helicobacter pylori-related ulcers had lower risk of mortality. The receiver operating characteristic curve comparing the prediction of mortality with actual mortality showed an area under the curve of 0.842. From 2004 to 2006, data were collected prospectively from a second cohort of patients with bleeding peptic ulcers, and mortality was predicted by using the model developed. The receiver operating characteristic curve showed an area under the curve of 0.729.

CONCLUSIONS: Among patients with bleeding peptic ulcers after endoscopic hemostasis, advanced age, presence of listed comorbidity, multiple comorbidities, hypovolemic shock, in-hospital bleeding, rebleeding, and need for surgery successfully predicted in-hospital mortality.