The 2-year prognosis of panic episodes in the general population.

BACKGROUND: Panic disorder (PD) is generally considered to be a chronic or intermittent disorder. This view may be biased because of a lack of general population studies investigating panic from the onset of an episode onwards. Data regarding the course of subthreshold panic disorder (sub-PD) and predictors of its course are lacking.

METHOD: Using data from a large community-based survey, the Netherlands Mental Health and Incidence Study (NEMESIS), that retrospectively assessed the 2-year course of panic with a Life Chart Interview (LCI), this study investigated remission, chronicity and recurrence in subjects with new episodes of PD or sub-PD. Predictor variables of remission consisted of sociodemographics, psychobiological, environmental, psychiatric and panic-related factors.

RESULTS: In PD, remission of panic attacks occurred in 64.5% of subjects, mean time to remission was 5.7 months, and the remission rate was 5.8/100 person-months. In 43.3% of subjects panic was still present after 1 year. Recurrence of panic attacks occurred in 21.4% of those with PD who had achieved remission and for whom sufficient follow-up time was available. In general, the course of sub-PD was more favourable. Predictors of remission were female gender, the absence of ongoing difficulties, subthreshold panic and a low initial frequency of attacks.

CONCLUSIONS: These results suggest that the course of panic is diverse in the general population, thereby underlining the need for accurate predictors. This requires further research including biological data and additional psychological data. In addition, given the large proportion with a relapse, relapse prevention should be part of any treatment programme.