Metastatic melanoma: lactate dehydrogenase levels and CT imaging findings of tumor devascularization allow accurate prediction of survival in patients treated with bevacizumab.

PURPOSE: To predict survival in patients with metastatic melanoma by evaluating a combination of serum lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) level and initial computed tomographic (CT) findings of tumor devascularization after antiangiogenic therapy.

MATERIALS AND METHODS: Consent was waived for this institutional review board-approved, retrospective, secondary analysis. Forty-four patients with metastatic melanoma received bevacizumab therapy in a randomized prospective phase II trial. Target lesions on the initial posttherapy CT images were evaluated by using Response Evaluation Criteria in Solid Tumors, the Choi criteria, and Morphology, Attenuation, Size, and Structure (MASS) criteria. Cox proportional hazards models were used to assess the association of baseline clinical variables including serum LDH and imaging findings with progression-free and overall survival. The receiver operating characteristic curve with area under the curve (AUC) was used to evaluate accuracy.

RESULTS: In multivariate analysis, a high baseline serum LDH level was associated with decreased progression-free survival (hazard ratio = 1.29 for each increase of 100 IU/L; P = .002) and overall survival (hazard ratio = 1.44 for each increase of 100 IU/L; P = .001). Evaluation with MASS criteria of the first CT examination after therapy strongly predicted progression-free (P < .001) and overall (P < .001) survival. Baseline serum LDH level was moderately accurate for predicting progression-free survival at 9 months (AUC = 0.793) and overall survival at 18 months (AUC = 0.689). The combination of baseline serum LDH levels and evaluation with MASS criteria at the first CT examination after therapy had significantly higher accuracy for predicting progression-free survival at 9 months (AUC = 0.969) and overall survival at 18 months (AUC = 0.813) than did baseline serum LDH levels alone for prediction of progression-free survival (P = .020).

CONCLUSION: A combination of baseline serum LDH levels and evaluation with MASS criteria at the first CT examination after bevacizumab therapy had the highest accuracy for predicting survival in patients with metastatic melanoma.