Respiratory syncytial virus circulation in seven countries with Global Disease Detection Regional Centers.

BACKGROUND: Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is the leading cause of lower respiratory tract infections in young children globally, with the highest burden in low- and middle-income countries where the association between RSV activity and climate remains unclear.

METHODS: Monthly laboratory-confirmed RSV cases and associations with climate data were assessed for respiratory surveillance sites in tropical and subtropical areas (Bangladesh, China, Egypt, Guatemala, Kenya, South Africa, and Thailand) during 2004-2012. Average monthly minimum and maximum temperatures, relative humidity, and precipitation were calculated using daily local weather data from the US National Climatic Data Center.

RESULTS: RSV circulated with 1-2 epidemic periods each year in site areas. RSV seasonal timing and duration were generally consistent within country from year to year. Associations between RSV and weather varied across years and geographic locations. RSV usually peaked in climates with high annual precipitation (Bangladesh, Guatemala, and Thailand) during wet months, whereas RSV peaked during cooler months in moderately hot (China) and arid (Egypt) regions. In South Africa, RSV peaked in autumn, whereas no associations with seasonal weather trends were observed in Kenya.

CONCLUSIONS: Further understanding of RSV seasonality in developing countries and various climate regions will be important to better understand the epidemiology of RSV and for timing the use of future RSV vaccines and immunoprophylaxis in low- and middle-income countries.