Risk factors for anterior glenohumeral instability.

BACKGROUND: While anterior glenohumeral instability has been shown to be common in young athletes, the risk factors for injury are poorly understood.

PURPOSE/HYPOTHESIS: To determine the modifiable and nonmodifiable risk factors for anterior shoulder instability in a high-risk cohort. The hypothesis was that specific baseline factors would be associated with the subsequent risk of injury.

STUDY DESIGN: Cohort study (prognosis); Level of evidence, 2.

METHODS: We conducted a prospective cohort study in which 714 young athletes were followed from June 2006 through May 2010. Baseline assessments included a subjective history of instability, physical examination by a sports medicine fellowship-trained orthopaedic surgeon, range of motion, strength with a handheld dynamometer, and bilateral noncontrast shoulder magnetic resonance imaging (MRI). A musculoskeletal radiologist measured glenoid version, glenoid height, glenoid width, glenoid index (height-to-width ratio), glenoid depth, rotator interval (RI) height, RI width, RI area, RI index, and the coracohumeral interval. Subjects were followed to document all acute anterior shoulder instability events during the 4-year follow-up period. The time to anterior shoulder instability event during the follow-up period was the primary outcome of interest. Univariate and multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to analyze the data.

RESULTS: Complete data were available for 714 subjects. During the 4-year surveillance period, there were 39 anterior instability events documented at a mean of 285 days. While we controlled for covariates, significant risk factors of physical examination were as follows: apprehension sign (hazard ratio [HR], 2.96; 95% CI, 1.48-5.90; P = .002) and relocation sign (HR, 4.83; 95% CI, 1.75-13.33; P = .002). Baseline range of motion and strength measures were not associated with subsequent injury. Significant anatomic risk factors on MRI measurement were glenoid index (HR, 8.12; 95% CI, 1.07-61.72; P = .043) and the coracohumeral interval (HR, 1.20; 95% CI, 1.08-1.34; P = .001).

CONCLUSION: This prospective cohort study revealed significant risk factors for shoulder instability in this high-risk population. Physical examination findings of apprehension and relocation were significant while controlling for history of injury. The anatomic variables of significance were not surprising-tall and thin glenoids were at higher risk compared with short and wide glenoids, and the risk of instability increased by 20% for every 1-mm increase in coracohumeral distance.