Operative Versus Nonoperative Treatment of Jones Fractures: A Decision Analysis Model.

Optimal management of metadiaphyseal fifth metatarsal fractures (Jones fractures) remains controversial. Decision analysis can optimize clinical decision-making based on available evidence and patient preferences. We conducted a study to establish the determinants of decision-making and to determine the optimal treatment strategy for Jones fractures using a decision analysis model. Probabilities for potential outcomes of operative and nonoperative treatment of Jones fractures were determined from a review of the literature. Patient preferences for outcomes were obtained by questionnaire completed by 32 healthy adults with no history of foot fracture. Derived values were used in the model as a measure of utility. A decision tree was constructed, and fold-back and sensitivity analyses were performed to determine optimal treatment. Nonoperative treatment was associated with a value of 7.74, and operative treatment with an intramedullary screw was associated with a value of 7.88 given the outcome probabilities and utilities studied, making operative treatment the optimal strategy. When parameters were varied, nonoperative treatment was favored when the likelihood of healing with nonoperative treatment rose above 82% and when the probability of healing after surgery fell below 92%. In this decision analysis model, operative fixation is the preferred management strategy for Jones fractures.