Future of testicular germ cell tumor incidence in the United States: Forecast through 2026.

BACKGROUND: Testicular germ cell tumors (TGCTs) are rare tumors in the general population but are the most commonly occurring malignancy among males between ages 15 and 44 years in the United States (US). Although non-Hispanic whites (NHWs) have the highest incidence in the US, rates among Hispanics have increased the most in recent years. To forecast what these incidence rates may be in the future, an analysis of TGCT incidence in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results program and the National Program of Cancer Registries was conducted.

METHODS: TGCT incidence data among males ages 15 to 59 years for the years 1999 to 2012 were obtained from 39 US cancer registries. Incidence rates through 2026 were forecast using age-period-cohort models stratified by race/ethnicity, histology (seminoma, nonseminoma), and age.

RESULTS: Between 1999 and 2012, TGCT incidence rates, both overall and by histology, were highest among NHWs, followed by Hispanics, Asian/Pacific Islanders, and non-Hispanic blacks. Between 2013 and 2026, rates among Hispanics were forecast to increase annually by 3.96% (95% confidence interval, 3.88%-4.03%), resulting in the highest rate of increase of any racial/ethnic group. By 2026, the highest TGCT rates in the US will be among Hispanics because of increases in both seminomas and nonseminomas. Rates among NHWs will slightly increase, whereas rates among other groups will slightly decrease.

CONCLUSIONS: By 2026, Hispanics will have the highest rate of TGCT of any racial/ethnic group in the US because of the rising incidence among recent birth cohorts. Reasons for the increase in younger Hispanics merit further exploration. Cancer 2017;123:2320-2328. © 2017 American Cancer Society.