The Baveno VI criteria for predicting esophageal varices: validation in real life practice.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: According to the Baveno VI consensus, patients with liver stiffness < 20 kPa and a platelet count > 150,000 ul have very low risk of clinically significant varices and do not need a screening endoscopy. The aim of this study was to evaluate non-invasive methods as predictors of esophageal varices according to the Baveno VI recommendations, in real life clinical practice.

METHODS: Retrospective evaluation of patients with chronic liver disease who underwent transient elastography between January 2013 and December 2015.

RESULTS: One hundred and four patients were included in the study, the median age was 56.8 years and 69.2% were male. The etiology of liver disease was hepatitis C in 80% of patients (including 20% with HIV co-infection), alcohol in 12%, hepatitis B in 4% and other causes in 5%. Varices were present in 25% of patients. A liver stiffness < 20 kPa had a sensitivity of 92.3% and a specificity of 84.6%. When considering high risk varices (small with red wales or large varices), a liver stiffness < 20 kPa had 100% sensitivity. A platelet count > 150,000/l had a sensitivity of 84.6% and a specificity of 64.1%. Four patients with a platelet count (PLT) > 150,000/l had esophageal varices. When both criteria were applied to the patient cohort, according to the Baveno VI consensus, the sensitivity was 100% and the specificity, 61.5%.

CONCLUSION: In this study, the Baveno VI criteria had 100% sensitivity but a relatively low specificity for the non-invasive diagnosis of esophageal varices. In clinical practice, all patients with varices are identified but many patients have a subsequent negative endoscopy.