Validation of post-operative residual contrast enhancing tumor volume as an independent prognostic factor for overall survival in newly diagnosed glioblastoma.

Background: In the current study, we pooled imaging data in newly diagnosed GBM patients from international multicenter clinical trials, single institution databases, and multicenter clinical trial consortiums to identify the relationship between post-operative residual enhancing tumor volume and overall survival (OS).

Methods: Data from 1,511 newly diagnosed GBM patients from 5 data sources were included in the current study: 1) a single institution database from UCLA (N=398; Discovery); 2) patients from the Ben and Cathy Ivy Foundation for Early Phase Clinical Trials Network Radiogenomics Database (N=262 from 8 centers; Confirmation); 3) the chemoradiation placebo arm from an international phase III trial (AVAglio; N=394 from 120 locations in 23 countries; Validation); 4) the experimental arm from AVAglio examining chemoradiation plus bevacizumab (N=404 from 120 locations in 23 countries; Exploratory Set 1); and 5) an Alliance (N0874) Phase I/II trial of vorinostat plus chemoradiation (N=53; Exploratory Set 2). Post-surgical, residual enhancing disease was quantified using T1 subtraction maps. Multivariate Cox regression models were used to determine influence of clinical variables, MGMT status, and residual tumor volume on OS.

Results: A log-linear relationship was observed between post-operative, residual enhancing tumor volume and OS in newly diagnosed GBM treated with standard chemoradiation. Post-operative tumor volume is a prognostic factor for OS (P<0.01), regardless of therapy, age, and MGMT promoter methylation status.

Conclusion: Post-surgical, residual contrast-enhancing disease significantly negatively influences survival in patients with newly diagnosed glioblastoma treated with chemoradiation with or without concomitant experimental therapy.