Prognostic nomogram for the combination therapy of percutaneous catheter drainage and antibiotics in pyogenic liver abscess patients.

PURPOSE: To identify the predictors for recovery of pyogenic liver abscess (PLA) patients treated with percutaneous catheter drainage (PCD) and antibiotics, and then develop an effective nomogram to predict the recovery time.

MATERIALS AND METHODS: The retrospective study included consecutive PLA patients treated with PCD and antibiotics. We defined the overall recovery time (ORT) as the time from the PCD procedure to the time of clinical success or failure. Based on the ORT, its predictors were identified with univariate and multivariate analyses. Then, a nomogram was developed to predict the ORT, and was internally validated by using Harrell's c statistic.

RESULTS: A total of 116 patients and 142 PCD procedures with a median ORT of 15.0±10.6 days were included. Gas-formation (GF; HR: 0.486 [95% CI 0.312-0.757]; P = 0.001), diabetes mellitus (DM; HR: 0.455 [95% CI 0.303-0.682]; P<0.001), and preinterventional septic shock (PSS; HR: 0.276 [95% CI 0.158-0.483]; P < 0.001) were identified as predictors for the ORT of combination therapy after univariate and multivariate analyses, which indicated a significantly longer ORT than those patients without. The prognostic analyses demonstrated that the more predictors (GF, DM, and PSS) a patient exhibited, the longer ORT for the combination therapy. A nomogram was developed to predict the ORT and revealed high accuracy, with Harrell's c statistic of 0.73.

CONCLUSION: GF, DM, and PSS were predictors for the recovery of PLA patients treated with PCD and antibiotics. The nomogram was effective in predicting the ORT of combination therapy.