Merkel Cell Carcinoma Outcomes: Does AJCC8 Underestimate Survival?

INTRODUCTION: The eighth edition of the American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC8) Staging Manual provides important information for staging and prognostication; however, survival estimates for patients with Stage I-III Merkel cell carcinoma (MCC), a rare disease, may be as practical using data from large-volume centers as that collated for the AJCC analysis. As such, we compared our institutional outcomes to AJCC8.

METHODS: Patients who presented from 2005 to 2017 with MCC to two high-volume centers were included. Demographics, clinicopathologic characteristics, survival and recurrence data were compiled, and outcomes compared to AJCC8.

RESULTS: A total of 409 patients were included. Median age was 75 (range 29-98) years, and 68% were male. Median follow-up was 16 months (0-157). Five-year overall survival (OS) was 70%; 5-year disease-specific survival (DSS) was 84%. When stratified by extent of disease, 5-year OS was higher for patients with local disease compared to those with nodal disease (72.6% vs 62.7%, p=0.005). Similarly, patients with local disease had higher 5-year DSS than those with nodal disease (90.1% vs 76.8%, p=0.002). Five-year recurrence-free survival was 59.2% for all patients, 65.0% for local disease and 48.3% for nodal disease (p=0.033).

CONCLUSIONS: Here, MCC patients with local or nodal disease have substantially higher OS rates than predicted in AJCC8 (5-year: 72.6% vs 50.6%; 62.7% vs 35.4%, respectively). Importantly, 5-year DSS was significantly better than the OS rates reported presently and in AJCC8. As clinicians and patients rely on AJCC to accurately prognosticate and guide treatment decisions, these estimates should be reassessed and updated to more accurately predict survival outcomes.