An elevated CA 19-9 is associated with invasive cancer and worse survival in IPMN.

BACKGROUND: Current guidelines for IPMN include an elevated serum carbohydrate antigen (CA) 19-9 among the worrisome features. However, the correlation of CA 19-9 with histological malignant features and survival is unclear. Serum CEA is also currently used for preoperative management of IPMN, although its measurement is not evidence-based. Accordingly, we aimed to assess the role of these tumor markers as predictors of malignancy in IPMN.

METHODS: IPMN resected between 1998 and 2018 at Massachusetts General Hospital were analyzed. Clinical, pathological and survival data were collected and compared to preoperative levels of CA 19-9 and CEA. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) and Cox regression analyses were performed considering cut-offs of 37 U/ml (CA 19-9) and 5 μg/l (CEA).

RESULTS: Analysis of 594 patients showed that preoperative CA 19-9 levels > 37 U/ml (n = 128) were associated with an increased likelihood of invasive carcinoma when compared to normal levels (45.3% vs. 18.0%, P < 0.001), while there was no difference with respect to high-grade dysplasia (32.9% vs 31.9%, P = 0.88). The proportion of concurrent pancreatic cancer was higher in patients with CA 19-9 > 37 U/ml (17.2% vs 4.9%, P < 0.001). An elevated CA 19-9 was also associated with worse overall and disease-free survival (HR = 1.943, P = 0.007 and HR = 2.484, P < 0.001 respectively). CEA levels did not correlate with malignancy.

CONCLUSION: In patients with IPMN, serum CA19-9 > 37 U/ml is associated with invasive IPMN and concurrent pancreatic cancer as well as worse survival, but not with high-grade dysplasia. Serum CEA appears to have minimal utility in the management of these patients.