Validated Clinical Score to Predict Gastroesophageal Reflux in Patients with Chronic Laryngeal Symptoms: COuGH RefluX.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Discerning whether laryngeal symptoms result from gastroesophageal reflux is clinically challenging and a reliable tool to stratify patients is needed. We aimed to develop and validate a model to predict likelihood of gastroesophageal reflux disease (GERD) among patients with chronic laryngeal symptoms.

METHODS: This multicenter international study collected data from adults with chronic laryngeal symptoms that underwent objective testing (upper GI endoscopy and/or ambulatory reflux monitoring) between 3/2018-5/2023. The training phase identified a model with optimal receiver operating characteristic curves, and beta coefficients informed a weighted model. The validation phase assessed performance characteristics of the weighted model.

RESULTS: 856 adults, 304 in training cohort and 552 in the validation cohort, were included. In the training phase the optimal predictive model [AUC 0.68 (95% CI 0.62, 0.74)] - the COuGH RefluX score - consisted of Cough, Overweight/obesity, Globus, Hiatal Hernia, Regurgitation, and male seX with a lower threshold of 2.5 and upper threshold of 5.0 to predict proven GERD. In the validation phase, the COuGH RefluX score had an AUC of 0.67 (0.62, 0.71) with 79% sensitivity and 81% specificity for proven GERD.

CONCLUSIONS: The externally validated COuGH RefluX score is a clinically practical model to predict likelihood of proven GERD. The score classifies most patients with chronic laryngeal symptoms as low/high likelihood of proven GERD, with only 38% remaining as indeterminate. Thus, the COuGH RefluX score can guide diagnostic strategies and reduce inappropriate proton pump inhibitor use or testing for patients referred for evaluation of chronic laryngeal symptoms.