Predictive value of hCG level 14 days after embryo transfer.

OBJECTIVE: It has been reported that the quantitative serum hCG level 14 days after embryo transfer (ET) correlated with pregnancy outcome as well as a likelihood of a multiple gestation pregnancy. This prospective study was designed to assess the predictive value of a 14-day post-ET hCG level with pregnancy outcome and multiple gestation pregnancies.

METHODS: Patients undergoing in vitro fertilization (IVF) and ET were monitored by serum quantitative hCG levels 14 days after ET. If positive, serial values of hCG were obtained and transvaginal ultrasound was performed 3 weeks after ET and weekly until fetal cardiac activity was seen. Ongoing pregnancies were defined as greater than 20 weeks.

RESULTS: One hundred eleven patients had positive serum quantitative hCG levels 14 days post-ET; 89/111, or 80.2%, had ongoing pregnancies. The spontaneous miscarriage rate was, therefore, 19.8% (22/111). If the level was less than 300, the ongoing multiple pregnancy rate was 9% (5/57). If the level was between 300 and 600, the ongoing pregnancy rate was 40% (10/25). If the hCG level was greater than 600, the multiple pregnancy rate was 100% (7/7).

CONCLUSIONS: These data support the hypothesis that hCG levels greater than 200 mIU/ml on 14 days post-ET are more likely to have ongoing pregnancies; hCG levels greater than 600 have a high likelihood of a multiple gestation pregnancy.