Prognostic factors for relapse in stage I testicular seminoma treated with surveillance.

PURPOSE: We sought to identify prognostic factors predictive of disease progression in patients with clinical stage I seminoma on surveillance following orchiectomy.

MATERIALS AND METHODS: Between January 1981 and December 1993, 201 patients 20 to 86 years old (median age 34) with clinical stage I seminoma were placed on surveillance following orchiectomy. The potential prognostic factors studied included age, tumor size, mitotic count, S phase fraction, ploidy, presence of small vessel invasion, syncytiotrophoblasts and tumor infiltrating lymphocytes, expression of beta-human chorionic gonadotropin and low molecular weight keratin on immunohistochemistry.

RESULTS: With a median followup of 6.1 years (range 1.3 to 12.3) 31 patients had relapse for an actuarial 5-year relapse-free rate of 84.9%. The 5-year actuarial survival rate was 97.1% and the cause specific survival rate was 99.5%. On univariate analysis factors predictive of relapse were tumor size (5-year relapse-free rate 88 and 67% for tumors 6 cm. or less and greater than 6 cm., respectively, p = 0.004), age (5-year relapse-free rate 79 and 91% for age 34 years or younger versus older than 34 years, respectively, p = 0.009) and presence of small vessel invasion (5-year relapse-free rate 86 versus 69%, p = 0.01). On multivariate analysis age and tumor size were predictive of relapse, while small vessel invasion approached statistical significance. The risk of relapse in 57 patients with none of the 3 adverse prognostic factors (age greater than 34 years, tumor 6 cm. or smaller and no small vessel invasion) was 6%.

CONCLUSIONS: We identified age, size of the primary tumor and small vessel invasion as important prognostic factors for relapse in patients with stage I seminoma treated with surveillance. Further followup and assessment of biological factors are needed to optimize selection of patients at a high risk for relapse who should receive immediate postoperative therapy.